Only value bets

The two Groups of Football league continue today with nine matches. Like every time I must point out I am not interested in ridiculously low odds just to say I had 100% accuracy. The only thing that matters to me is the value for the risk involved, nothing else. This is why I will remind you to stay away from anything less than 1.80-2.00 in Football League no matter what your option is.

The predictions and betting picks for the Sunday matches:

GROUP 1

EPISKOPI vs. ACHARNAIKOS

The two consecutive away defeats from Fostiras (3-0) and Iraklis Psachnon (2-0) have taken Episkopi three points away from the fourth Playoff place. Mr. Anyfantakis knows very well his team cannot afford a new negative result especially since Kallithea lost on Friday. They won Acharnaikos in the first round (0-1) and they must do it again if they want to stay close to the Playoffs.

Acharnaikos was not bad in the last home match against Fostiras but they lost (0-1) despite their efforts for a positive result. They will now try to get whatever they can in the away match against Episkopi and take expand their point difference from Asteras Magoulas that lost yesterday.

Betting Pick: Both teams to score @ 2.10

Episkopi is not exactly reliable at home (3W-2D-2L, goals 9-7) and the away performances of Acharnaikos (1W-3D-3L, goals 7-9) tell me they should not be underestimated. Both sides want the win for their own reasons and the sixteen goals they both have received so far make this my main pick for this match.

FOSTIRAS vs. VYZAS MEGARA

Fostiras won the last away match against Acharnaikos (0-1) but the home team added a lot of pressure to them and they could have got more in that match. Now they will face a relatively easier opponent at home where they are stronger (2W-4D-1L, goals 7-5).

Vyzas is coming from two consecutive draws with the same score (1-1) against Paniliakos (away) and Panaigialeios (at home). This was the first time the team was not defeated for two consecutive matches this season but they will need better performances and a lot more points to avoid relegation.

Betting Pick: Both teams to score @ 2.10

Vyzas has scored in the last four matches against Olympiakos Volou, Panachaiki, Paniliakos and Panaigialeios but their weak defense seems unable to keep a clean sheet. Considering the low odds that I saw in the home win, this is probably the best way to approach this match.

PANAIGIALEIOS vs. GLYFADA

When I was writing this article, this match was not offered by any bookmaker. It seems they have learned their lesson for offering their odds in the last two matches where Glyfada played with 10 (Olympiakos Volou, 0-4) and 9 players (Paniliakos, 0-7) because the League did not issue their licenses. According to the info I get, this will not happen this week. In fact Glyfada will have a roster of 20 men available for the away match against Panaigialeios. Even if you see odds offered later on in this match, I strongly advise you to stay away. Panaigialeios is safe in terms of motive for points and the true potential of the new roster of Glyfada is a mystery. NO BET.

FOKIKOS vs. IRAKLIS PSACHNON

Fokikos got a very important home win against Chania (1-0) and stayed close to a Playoff placement giving an end to their losing streak of two matches (Asteras Magoulas 0-2 at home, Kallithea 2-1 away). The defeat of Kallithea and the draw of Panachaiki on Friday combine with the fact they are facing a top 3 opponent make this match a must win situation for the players of Mr. Koutsis.

Iraklis Psachnon continued their undefeated streak (4W-5D-0L) after their home win against Episkopi (2-0) and if they manage to win Fokikos today they will gain more distance from all the teams beneath them in the battle of the Playoffs (Kallithea, Fokikos, Episkopi, Panachaki).

Betting Pick: The draw at halftime @ 1.90

Iraklis comes from three consecutive away draws with the same score (0-0) against Asteras Magoulas, Kallithea and Chania. They are stronger at home (5W-2D-1L) but they have also realized that the best way to keep their place is by not losing when playing away (2W-4D-1L). I expect to see both teams concentrating first on not losing this match so this option looks great for the first 45 minutes as none of them will be interested in taking any risks. The draw @ 3.10 is also the most probable result although Fokikos has more in stake.

GROUP 2

NEA KAVALA vs. ANAGENNISI KARDITSAS

Things seem to improve at Kavala. The two home wins against Aiginiakos (1-0) and Zakynthos (1-0) have taken them out of the last place and now they are only a point away from Pierikos who is playing against Iraklis today and it is highly unlikely they will get any points. The home stats of Kavala (3W-2D-3L goals 8-10) are not good enough but Karditsa is very influenced by the home ground effect as they are undefeated at home (5W-3D-0L, goals 8-1) but they also fail to get away points (2W-1D-4L, goals 5-10). The home win @ 2.30 will not be easy but the motive of Kavala is much stronger.

DOXA DRAMAS vs. TYRNAVOS

This match is very similar to the one of Kavala against Karditsa. Doxa Dramas has got more points at home (3W-1D-3L, goals 6-8) and they come from an away draw against Karditsa (0-0) which was considered a positive result. They are in need of more points to keep their distance from relegation places. Tyrnavos might be strong at home (6W-1D-1L, goals 11-4) but they are a totally different team when playing away (0W-3D-4L, goals 4-12). The home win @ 2.00 is a bit low but still a probable result.

ZAKYNTHOS vs. GAZOROS

Zakynthos has not scored in the last 4 matches having three defeats (Aiginiakos, Karditsa and Kavala) and one draw (Iraklis 0-0 at home). Their only one win in the last six matches shows they are indeed out of form. They are strong at home (5W-1D-1L, goals 11-2) but how can I underestimate the motive of Gazoros who is constantly close to the Playoffs? Gazoros is a bit tough when playing away (1W-3D-3L, goals 4-8) so the poor form of Zakynthos combined with their inability for draws (season stats 6W-1D-8L) make me choose the away win @ 3.65.

VATANIAKOS vs. APOLLON KALAMARIAS

Vataniakos came very close to a positive away result against the leaders of Kassiopi last week (4-3). It was a proof of how dangerous can a weak team be when they are in need of points. They are doing better at home (1W-3D-3L) where they have got 6 of their 9 points and I do expect them to fight against Apollon Kalamarias. Their opponent is getting closer to the Playoff places with three wins in their last four matches but they are not exactly reliable when playing away (3W-0D-4L, goals 5-11). The option of Over 2.5 goals @ 2.50 is my only choice here. I had some thoughts on the home win but the bookies were alarmed from the match against Kerkyra and they offer it in low odds for the risk involved.

IRAKLIS 1908 vs. PIERIKOS

I cannot blame the bookies for the low odds on the home win here. Iraklis won six of the last seven matches and their last away win against Gazoros (0-2) proved they mean business. They are undefeated at home (6W-1D-0L, goals 12-4) and Pierikos will have a hard time today as their away stats (1W-2D-4L, goals 4-8) and their form (4 defeats in the  last five)  show. I had some thoughts for the Over 2.5 goals option but the minute I saw the odds I decided to stay away. NO BET.

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