Let’s find some value bets
A total of nine matches are available this Sunday (four for Group 1 and five for Group 2) and the time is running. The bookies once again waited until the last minute to start making their offers and I am afraid this will continue to happen because everything in this league is so vague. This is the first weekend I publish any comments for the matches and I must point out I do not intend to include everything in my bets. What you will see in the brief analysis below are value bets considering the risk involved for us.
To the matches:
FOOTBALL LEAGUE GREECE – GROUP 1
IRAKLIS PSACHNON vs. OLYMPIAKOS VOLOU
Iraklis Psachnon might managed to qualify to the next round of the Greek Cup against a Super League club (Veria), but they are coming from two consecutive defeats against Panachaiki (0-1 at home, offered odds around 4.20) and Vyzas (1-0 away, offered odds around 6.90) both of which were considered unexpected results. Now they will have to face Olympiakos Volou who holds the best offense in Group 1 (11 goals in 6 matches) with their opponent coming from two consecutive wins. Olympiakos Volou is offered as a favorite for the match like Veria was but I am not in the mood of choosing anyone for the win. Iraklis Psachnon is traditionally stronger in home matches and I do expect them to fight despite their recent results. This is why I find the option of Over 2.5 goals @ 2.30 a safer bet than looking for the winner.
KALLITHEA vs. EPISKOPI
Kallithea is very fond of draws (1W-5D-0L, goals 6-4) and their only win so far was at home (1W-1D-0L, goals 2-0). The match against Episkopi (4W-1D-1L, goals 10-5) is expected to be difficult as their opponent is very dangerous both home (2W-0D-0L, goals 3-0) and away (2W-0D-1L, goals 5-2). Episkopi is coming from a home defeat against Asteras Magoulas (0-3, offered odds around 6.00!) which was among the big surprises of Day 6. Considering the experience of Kallithea in Football League, I will risk saying their win @ 2.00 is a logical bet but I would prefer it around 2.15-2.20.
FOSTIRAS vs. CHANIA
Fostiras recovered quickly from the humiliation in the Cup (7-0 from Atromitos) and they got the point in the last home match against Kallithea (0-0). They are fond of draws when playing at home (0W-3D-0L, goals 2-2) and their overall stats match the ones of Chania (2W-3D-1L, goals 6-6 versus 2W-3D-1L, goals 5-6 of the opponent). Chania are still looking for an away win (0W-2D-1L, goals 2-3) but considering all these stats I doubt it will be easy to see a winner here. The draw @ 2.90 is the only good option although it is expected from the bookies.
PANILIAKOS vs. PANACHAIKI
This match is considered a domestic battle of Peloponissos. Paniliakos is doing a lot better (3W-1D-2L, goals 6-6) than Panachaiki (1W-3D-2L, goals 3-4) who started as a favorite for entering the Playoffs but they keep failing to get wins. As a result they are already 4 points away from the top four teams and they come from a home defeat from Olympiakos Volou (0-1) which was meant to be a test for what they can do this season. The eccentric chairman of the team Mr. Koughias stated after that match that he failed and that the team will be sold to the higher bidder at the end of the season. Despite their poor morale this match is still a domestic battle and I will treat it accordingly. The draw @ 2.90 is a bit low but it will be my betting pick for this match.
FOOTBALL LEAGUE GREECE – GROUP 2
KARDITSA vs. PIERIKOS
Karditsa is one of the teams that act like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde between home (3W-0D-0L, goals 5-0) and away (0W-0D-3L, goals 0-5) matches. Pierikos is only three points away and they claim points everywhere having a poor offense but a good defense (1W-3D-2L, goals 2-3). The only value bets here are the win of Pierikos @ 6.50 and the X2 double chance @ 2.15.
GIANNITSA vs. ETHNIKOS GAZOROU
Giannitsa have not started well mainly because of their poor defense (1W-1D-4L, goals 5-9) but they have got 4 points in their last two matches (Zakynthos 2-0 at home, Kavala 2-2 away). At the same time Gazoros had a better start but they have not even scored in their last two matches against Karditsa (0-0 away) and Pierikos (0-0 at home). Considering mainly the last two match days I will choose that both teams will score @ 2.10 and that the winner will only come from an Over 2.5 goals result @ 2.40.
AIGINIAKOS vs. TYRNAVOS
Aiginiakos is fond of draws (1W-4D-1L, goals 3-1) and this is the only result they have at home so far (0W-2D-0L, goals 1-1). At the same time Tyrnavos is strong at home (3W-0D-1L, goals 5-2) but they have not even scored the two times they played away (0W-0D-2L, goals 0-4). Considering the undefeated streak of Aiginiakos (5 matches) and the away weakness of Tyrnavos I will accept the home win @ 1.65 but nothing less than that.
VATANIAKOS vs. KAVALA
Vataniakos has the worst defense of Group 2 (1W-1D-4L, goals 2-12) but they do fight their home matches (1W-1D-1L, goals 2-5) where they have managed to win Iraklis (1-0) and get a draw from Aiginiakos (0-0). Kavala was expected to do better this season but so far they just seem quite similar to their today’s opponent (1W-1D-4L, goals 6-9) having a very weak away presence (0W-0D-3L, goals 6-9). My overall impression is that Kavala is stronger both in offense and defense so I will risk saying they are capable to win at 2.75.
NIKI VOLOU vs. ZAKYNTHOS
Niki Volou is very strong at home (3W-0D-L, goals 8-0) and their overall stats (4W-1D-1L, goals 11-2) give them the second place in Group 2 until now. Zakynthos is just another Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in home (3W-0D-0L, goals 5-1) and away (0W-0D-3L, goals 0-7) matches. Since they have not even scored on an away match yet, I cannot see how they will manage to get a positive result today. The win of Niki Volou is logical but expected by the bookies (around 1.35-1.40). I never place a bet on anything below 1.50 so the only option that is left is the Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00.