We are almost there
The torture of the First Round of the Greek Cup is coming to an end. The puzzle will soon be completed with the rest of the teams that will qualify to the Group Stage. I strongly advise you to stay away from high confidence bets as all teams are still in preparation period. The new season in Football League will start in two weeks so you can imagine their performance level is still low. Like in the previous matches I will keep my comments short based mainly in their official match for the Cup (Round 1 – Leg 1) and maybe some recent friendly results. Our brief previews:
Analysis: Paniliakos – Panachaiki
On aggregate: 0-3
The bookies have done their homework here. Paniliakos has no hope for qualifying to the next round after the 3-0 defeat from Panachaiki. The only thing that is expected to motivate the home side is the rivalry these two clubs have. In a total of 16 official matches since 1999 there have been 7 home wins, 5 draws and 4 away wins. Paniliakos has managed to get only two wins (one home 2013, one away 2004) but they do have a very interesting habit of draws (1W-4D-3L at home).
Betting Pick: X2 double chance @ 1.50
The performance of Paniliakos was very poor in the first match. Their friendly tests show they do have scoring difficulties. They might be motivated but their opponent looks like a safer option. The win of Panachaiki @ 3.10 is a value bet.
Analysis: AOT Alimos – Chania
On aggregate: 0-4
The score of the first match (4-0) says it all. The red card Alimos received at 53’ (GK Bantikos) influenced the final score but the differences between the two teams were important. Chania are more experienced and it is almost certain they are more “ready” for the new season.
Betting Pick: The win of Chania @ 2.25
Alimos is using the Cup matches for training and nothing more. Normally they will be interested in a positive result but their opponent is stronger and more experienced. The value of the away win is a bit low but probable.
Analysis: Agrotikos Asteras – Aiginiakos
On aggregate: 0-0
The score of the first match has kept everything open. Aiginiakos wasted a great chance for a win after the red card Samouilidis received at 18’. Despite the fact Agrotikos Asteras was playing with a man down for almost 70 minutes, they got what they wanted and now they return to Evosmos where they had 13W-1D-1L last season (Football League 2).
Betting Pick: Agrotikos Asteras to win @ 2.25
I am very influenced by the failure of Aiginiakos to win in the first match. If they failed to win a team that was playing with 10 players for so long how can they be trusted for a positive result today? After all they are usually weaker in away matches.
Analysis: Panaigialeios – Ermionida
On aggregate: 1-0
Panaigialeios deserved the win in the first match and today their task is expected to be easier. They will be playing at home, they do have more experience than their opponent and Ermionida will not have 11 players available because of injuries or fitness. Let’s not forget Ermionida are the newcomers in Football League and their only goal is to stay away from relegation. The Cup is a luxury they cannot afford.
Betting Pick: The win of Panaigialeios @ 1.60
Even odds like 1.60 look like a value bet at this moment. One way or another Panaigialeios is expected to get the win. Unfortunately they have already won the first match and this can be dangerous in the case of extreme rotation in their lineup.
Analysis: Tyrnavos – Pierikos
On aggregate: 1-0
I cannot really blame the bookies for their low offers here. They treated Tyrnavos like an underdog in the first match but the goal of Tsoukalos at 20’ was enough to give them the win. Pierikos has a habit of not doing well when playing away but they had a change at their bench. Mr. Ziogas replaced Mr. Kaberidis and it was a clear sign the officials of the club were interested in the Cup competition.
Betting Pick: Both to score @ 2.00
Tyrnavos is usually stronger at home but their opponents look determined to claim whatever they can. I hesitate to pick a winner but this option looks great as the change at the bench of Pierikos is expected to motivate the players for a win.
Analysis: Gazoros – Anagennisi Karditsas
On aggregate: 1-1
Gazoros survived the first away match against Karditsa and they now have the advantage for qualifying to the next round. Karditsa got the lead at 12’ but they did not manage to hold on to their (expected) win. They received the equalizer at 80’ and disappointed the fans who attended the match. There have been a lot of complains by the officials of the club who insist Tsouvaltsidis (scorer) made a foul before the goal.
Betting Pick: The draw at halftime @ 2.00
Strange match… Karditsa must concentrate in defense and try to steal the match with a score like 0-1. Gazoros can settle with a 0-0 draw and get the job done. The home team has absolutely no reason to take any unnecessary risks so this option looks safer from every aspect.