Super League Greece
Analysis, previews and value bets on Super League Greece

A new must win for Panathinaikos

I will probably make some of Panathinaikos’ supporters angry but, the main problem of the Greens is they spend too much energy on things other than their own game. I agree the referees look quite friendly to specific clubs but only the Green hooligans are responsible the match against Olympiacos never started and the probable point deduction (the appeal is still pending). The way things have turned out, Panathinaikos is now forced to concentrate on how to win one match at the time (even with hostile referees) and cover the lost points. The next game against Asteras Tripolis would not be easy anyway but the draw between Panionios and AEK on Saturday has given Greens the chance to claim back the second place they lost on Day 11. Even with a match less. The preview and betting pick:

Analysis: Panathinaikos – Asteras Tripolis

*Click here to see the odds and referees of Day 14.

Panathinaikos got the away win against Veria with the minimum score (0-1). They were better than the home team, they added pressure for the win (total attempts 6-12) but they had to wait until 86’ to see Karelis scoring the winning goal. Coach Stramaccioni was pleased with the win after the unsuccessful result against Iraklis (defeat 1-0, away) which added pressure to him and the players. Now the team returns at home where they are stronger (4W-1D-0L, goals 11-1) but this time they will not have the support of their fans because the team is banned after the riots that took place against Olympiacos. There are two important problems reported.

Banned: –

Injured: Thelander (DEF/6/1 goal), Berg (FWD/11/3 goals/3 assists)

Asteras Tripolis comes from two consecutive defeats against Olympiacos (3-1 away) and Iraklis (1-2 at home). The first from the Champions was more or less expected but the second was mainly a result of their bad habit to throw away points before European matches. The players of Verghetis scored first (44’, penalty kick) but they did not take the warning of Iraklis (bar at 48’) and they paid the price for it. Their opponent scored twice at 58’ and 66’ and, despite the efforts of Asteras (total attempts 17-8), nothing changed until the final whistle although Iraklis was playing with a man down since 68’! In the midweek home match for the Europa League, they suffered a humiliating home defeat from Schalke (0-4) which completed their journey in the competition. The final score practically says it all although Asteras has the excuse of having no motive in that game.

Banned: –

Injured: Košický (GK/4), Goian (DEF/6), Kitoko (MID/1), Shkurtaj (FWD/5/1 goal/3 assists)

Betting pick: Both to score @ 2.30

Both teams need the win for their own reasons. Panathinaikos is constantly under pressure of the three points while Asteras comes from two consecutive defeats in Super League and they need a positive result. The odds on the home win (1.65-1.75) are a bit low for the risk involved because Panathinaikos is a bit shocked after Day 11. My guess is that it would better to risk on the option for goals by both sides @ 2.30 and/or a result of Over 2.5 goals @ 2.40. They look safer than anything else.

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