The end of a difficult weekend
I believe Day 13 turned out to be difficult in terms of predictions for the average punter as the five top clubs (Olympiacos, PAOK, Panathinaikos, Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos) did not win. I sincerely hope you found my comments for all of them useful although I am aware I missed a couple of value bets, especially on Saturday. If you had a chance to watch the matches you probably already know I was right in my approach. The last match is held in less than an hour with Panthrakikos facing Ergotelis at Komotini. Let’s have a look at the preview and betting pick:
Analysis: Panthrakikos – Ergotelis
Panthrakikos got the first win with Cases at their bench in the last home match against Platanias (1-0). Following their away defeat from PAOK (3-2) they were determined for the three points and they got them with a goal they scored at 17′. They were a bit lucky at 2′ when Platanias had an attempt stopped by the bar to take the lead but they also had one of their own at 20′. A second goal would have made things a bit easier and less stresful, especially as that match was coming to an end (attempts 14-13). The goal is a new home win that will take them out of the relegation places and push Ergotelis deeper in them.
Ergotelis did not deserve to lose the last away battle against OFI (1-0). The stats of that match tell us the home team had more attempts to score (15-11) but the truth is Ergotelis had no real problems in defense and kept executing dangerous counter attacks that could have given them the win. A late goal with a penalty kick at 97′ (!) left them with nothing when the draw would be a lot fairer for the efforts of the two clubs in the field. The next match against Panthrakikos has turned into a must win situation for them. A defeat is out of the question as they will leave them -5 points from the “safe” zone.
Betting Pick: The win of Ergotelis (+0.5) @ 1.90
The least that Ergotelis must get tonight is a draw and from what I have watched they may be able for more. They have been more dangerous when playing away and their bad luck in matches like the ones against Atromitos (1-1 away), Veria (2-2 at home) and OFI is responsible for not getting points they deserved. At some point their luck will change. Furthermore Panthrakikos has not shown enough quality yet to be offered in odds below 2.00 at home…