The win of PAOK is a value bet
I had no plans on including this match in my betting articles for this week but I changed my mind at the last minute. The reason is that I see most bookies being very confused on their offers although we are almost an hour before kickoff. The reason is probably the first match between those two teams where PAOK was left behind by two goals (13’, 21’) but managed to win the match with three more (35’, 39’, 66’). Things could have been a lot easier if Stoch had not missed the two penalty kicks (39’ – the goal from the header of Ninis in the same minute came from the corner kick that followed – and 45’).
Call me a lunatic but I am starting to believe the win of PAOK tonight is a value bet. I see so many people placing bets in ridiculous odds below 1.50 putting their faith in teams that do not deserve it. At least PAOK has 11 wins and 2 draws in the last 13 matches in both Super League and Europa League. At the same time, their opponent has 1W-4D-6L since 25/08/13 when their last winning streak was ended (3 consecutive wins). According to the news I get if Maccabi Haifa will fail tonight they will probably have a change at their bench as their coach is under a lot of pressure lately. Considering all the above, I am confident that PAOK will not be surprised this time as Mr. Stevens and all the players do know what their opponents are capable of. The stress will only be at the home side because they want to stay alive in this competition.
I cannot underestimate the fact that PAOK is also having a very important match in Super League this weekend as they will have to face Olympiakos in their rivalry battle at Karaiskakis. Personally I believe this upcoming battle can motivate the players of PAOK for the win. It is just not the same thing to go into such an important match after being defeated in a European match. Especially if the team you are facing is within your reach for a win and your upcoming hated opponent is coming from a very important win in the Champions League.
I will bet on the win of PAOK @ 2.65 because I consider them a stronger team and in a better form than their opponent. If this match was played 3 times under the exact same circumstances, I am very confident PAOK would get two wins. And for this reason any odd above 2.50 is a value bet for me. If you are afraid of higher odds, the win of PAOK (0:0) @ 1.90 can be a safer option.
That is all from me, I wish you the best of luck in your bets.