Here is an interesting scenario for Group C.

Italy is the favorite against Ireland but the odds are too low for taking the risk. I have reasons to doubt that a defensive team like Ireland will continue to receive goals so easily (7 already). At some point they must improve; why not today for the satisfaction of their wonderful crowd who never stopped singing even when they were down by 4-0. So what happens if Italy will not take the lead before half time? Will Croatia or Spain risk opening while holding the ticket to the next round?

Any draw of 2-2 or more progresses both teams to the next round. They both have 4 points but I seriously doubt that Spain will take any risks on this match. Croatia is a dangerous opponent and Spain is running an undefeated streak that has to end some day but not today. The odds on the win of Spain and the over 2.5 goals are falling rapidly and a possible draw of 0-0 or 1-1 score will be a disaster for everyone but Spain.

Both teams had a draw against Italy with the same score (1-1) with Italy scoring first. Both teams had an easy win against Ireland (Croatia by 3-1 and Spain by 4-0) and now they will face each other. They both know that they have to be careful in their defensive duties if they want to make it to the next round. I do not think that Croatia will try any kamikaze tricks to win because they know they will be punished. After all, the only way for Croatia to feel uncomfortable, is if Italy (who will be playing at the same time) takes the lead. What if Italy scores at the last minutes of the match? Then Croatia should open for the win, Spain can defend and maybe even punish them for opening their defense.

So here are my picks:

Italy vs. Ireland : HT / FT pick

Draw / Italy @3.60

Draw / Draw @ 7.50

Croatia vs. Spain: HT/ FT pick

Draw / Draw @5.00

Draw / Spain @4.33

The four possible combinations:

DateMatchPickTotal Odds
18/6/12Italy vs. Ireland
HT/FT Draw/Draw
37.5
18/6/12Croatia vs. Spain
HT/FT Draw/Draw


DateMatchPickTotal Odds
18/6/12Italy vs. Ireland
HT/FT Draw/Italy
18.0
18/6/12Croatia vs. Spain
HT/FT Draw/Draw

DateMatchPickTotal Odds
18/6/12Italy vs. Ireland
HT/FT Draw/Draw
32.47
18/6/12Croatia vs. Spain
HT/FTDraw/Spain

DateMatchPickTotal Odds
18/6/12Italy vs. Ireland
HT/FT Draw/Italy
15.58
18/6/12Croatia vs. Spain
HT/FTDraw/Spain


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